He also offered his own version of its outcome
Former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger said earlier that the conflict in Ukraine could have three outcomes. Political scientist Dmitry Zhuravlev, in an interview with Evening Moscow, assessed the forecasts of the former American Secretary of State and offered his own version of the outcome of the special operation.
Kissinger called the first option the victory of Russia by gaining control over 20% of the territory of Ukraine and most of the Donbass, in which case the role of NATO would cease to be as significant as before. Zhuravlev believes that this outcome depends on the position of NATO, and if the American leadership forces the Ukrainians to sign an agreement transferring the territories of Ukraine controlled by Russia to the Russian side, then it is quite possible.
Nevertheless, the political scientist recalled that Ukraine is signing many papers, which in the future do not oblige it to anything, and subsequently the Ukrainian side can again gather an army and start fighting. According to the expert, the agreements with Ukraine cannot be trusted, because it all started with its failure to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk process, which Germany even recognized, but the Ukrainian side still did nothing.
The second option, according to the former US Secretary of State, is an attempt to “squeeze out” Russia from the territories that it annexed even before the start of the special operation, including Crimea. After that, as Kissinger noted, hostilities will continue, and the West may be involved in a confrontation with Russia. Zhuravlev considers this option unrealistic, since Ukraine will not be able to take the peninsula from the Russian Federation.
According to the political scientist, the Ukrainian military machine has very low efficiency, and it takes not by skill, but by numbers. That is why, according to the expert, the confrontation with the West will begin first, and then the possible implementation of this option. At the same time, Zhuravlev recalled that NATO does not want to go for it, and the alliance will declare Russia an enemy, put pressure on it politically and economically, but will not directly enter into conflict.
The third option that Kissinger voiced was a return to the situation before February 24. In this case, in his opinion, Ukraine will be rearmed, and it will be closely connected with NATO or even join the alliance. The political scientist considers it unlikely that Ukraine will join NATO, and a return to the situation before the start of the special operation of the Russian Federation will mean the victory of the Ukrainian side, for which there are currently no prerequisites. According to Zhuravlev, Russia now occupies a leading position, and it is impossible to rewind time.
The expert himself predicts that the most likely outcome of the conflict is long-term hostilities, the result of which will be Russia's complete control over Ukraine. Zhuravlev explained that the task of denazification of Ukraine can be solved only by obtaining full control over the country by Russian troops. According to him, the most powerful nationalist formations are located on the territory of Western Ukraine.
The political scientist concluded that this is not the best option, but it is the most likely, since Ukraine does not perceive diplomacy as a possible option for resolving the conflict.
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